Report of the International Observer Mission (IOM) for the 2025 Philippine Elections
Read the full report in PDF form here
From April 21 to May 9 this year, the Balikatan exercises took place in the Philippines. As part of the annual exercises, about 9,000 US troops staged live firing exercises alongside 5,000 Filipino troops, a smaller contingent of Australian troops, and a Japanese Navy frigate in Mindanao, Palawan, Zambales and Batanes. The exercises largely overlapped with the 2025 Philippine Midterm Election campaign.
The US and Filipino commanders of Balikatan bluntly described the exercises as a “full battle test.” Participating militaries used the most advanced US anti-ship missile, anti-drone, and anti-aircraft systems, and carried out drills facing the West Philippine Sea and Taiwan. Balikatan is preparation for a US war with China, and was carried out across the domains of land, sea, air and cyberspace, involving all services and forces. US Marine Corps Forces Pacific Commander Lt. Gen. James Glynn said that Balikatan is a signature exercise in maintaining a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
These war games have the explicit approval of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, which has positioned itself as a close ally of the Trump administration. However, anti-war and patriotic movements in the country have opposed these exercises. On April 21, the opening day of Balikatan, the national patriotic alliance Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (BAYAN) organised a protest at the US Embassy in Manila. On April 26, 2025, progressive groups gathered at Freedom Park in Davao City to oppose the Balikatan 2025 exercises and US military bases.
While the exercises have severe local impacts, they are portrayed positively in mainstream and social media, conveying an inaccurate picture that the Philippines is facing a national emergency because of a threat of invasion by China. Voters are told that the presence of the US is necessary to defend their interests, which provides justification for choosing the candidates of President Marcos Jr’s Alliance for a New Philippines (APBP). Critics of Balikatan or advocates for a truly independent Philippine foreign policy are accused of being stooges for Beijing. This leads to a massive distortion of the election atmosphere.
On April 25, 2025, Senator Francis Tolentino alleged that the Chinese Embassy paid a local marketing firm 930,000 Php (US$16,800) to criticise the Balikatan exercises. National Security Council Assistant Director General Jonathan Malaya stated, “You will see narratives coming from Beijing that the Balikatan exercises are a threat to regional peace and stability, and you will also see that coming from local proxies.” Tolentino, Malaya and APBP are blind to the threat to Philippine sovereignty that results from the Balikatan exercises and presence of thousands of foreign troops in the country.
Liza Maza, a Makabayan senatorial candidate, said that the cost of food and low wages dominated the current election, but that the pressure from China in the West Philippine Sea is a significant secondary issue. Because of the sharp competition between the Marcos and Duterte families, the US will favor Marcos Jr. over the Dutertes. “The US-Marcos Jr. narrative is that China is out to invade the Philippines and so the Philippines should stay close to the US.”
“The Makabayan campaign asserts independence and national sovereignty. We need to stand on our own to secure our country because the US is trying to control the Asia-Pacific region and use the Philippines as a major military base. We support a diplomatic resolution of conflict in the West Philippine Sea, not the military solution favoured by the US.”
BAYAN spokesperson Mong Palatino said on May 6: “The probe on China’s espionage and interference activities should expose those who colluded with Beijing in negating the Philippine claim in the West Philippine Sea and manipulating public opinion during the election campaign.”
“But the probe should be widened to look into the more insidious legacy of US interference in the local elections and politics. Historically, it is the US which has the most brazen record in subverting our sovereignty and normalizing its intervention in Philippine politics.”
Professor Roland Simbulan, Chairperson of the Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG) called on Marcos Jr. to reject lopsided defense agreements with the United States and pursue a truly independent foreign policy that prioritizes national sovereignty and regional peace. “The Philippines must not allow itself to be a pawn in great power rivalries. CenPEG urges the Filipino people to critically examine the long-term consequences of foreign military entanglements on national security, sovereignty, and regional stability,” said Prof. Simbulan.
The concurrent staging of the Balikatan military exercises and the Philippine midterm election campaign raises serious concerns about the integrity of democratic processes under conditions of heightened militarization and foreign intervention. While Marcos-aligned candidates peddle the narrative that it is a strategic defense posture against regional threats, the presence of thousands of foreign troops, combined with live-fire drills and counterinsurgency operations, have tangible consequences for civic space, electoral discourse, and local livelihoods.
The dominance of pro-military narratives in mainstream, government, and military channels, which often portray dissenting voices as hostile or China-aligned, is alarming. This manufactures consent for heightened militarization and foreign intervention, drowning out critical voices or those who call for an independent, truly Filipino foreign policy.
From the perspective of international election observation, the normalization of such exercises during a critical electoral period distorts the conditions necessary for a free, fair, and independent elections.
The Balikatan’s Impacts on Local Communities
3-day Fishing Ban in Zambales
The fisherfolk organisation, Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya ng Pilipinas (Pamalakaya), condemned the 3-day no-sail zone policy which the US and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) imposed in Zambales early in the Balikatan program. With just 24 hours notice, fisherfolk in the towns of San Antonio, San Narciso, San Felipe, Cabangan, Botolan, and Subic were prohibited from going out to sea from April 25 to April 27. Rough weather after April 27 meant more days without income. Ronnel Arambulo, Pamalakaya Vice-Chair, said that April to June is peak fishing season for Zambales fisherfolk. “This is when the sea is most generous. Halting fishing now is a direct blow to our communities.”
US troops join AFP counterinsurgency operations outside Balikatan
In the first week of April 2025, prior to Balikatan commencing, reports from the ground confirmed that US troops joined AFP units in “clearing operations in Sitio Singawan, Brgy Umiray in Dingalan, Aurora, and on to General Tinio in Nueva Ecija. The Armed Forces of the Philippines validated the presence of foreign troops, along with DVIDS, a news portal reporting on US forces deployed globally, regarding joint logistics operations in Dingalan, Aurora, on April 7, 2025.
Farmers were prohibited from working on their fields. During Balikatan itself, US troops were sighted by local civilians joining with AFP units in counterinsurgency patrols in the towns of Lopez, Gumaea, Macelelon, General Luna and Catanauan in Quezon province.
US Military operations in Mindanao
On March 31, several weeks prior to the Balikatan exercises, US and Philippine marines launched Marine Exercise 2025 in Maguindanao del Norte, Mindanao. The 480 troops focused on small-unit tactics and a final “full mission profile” simulating combat conditions, according to a Philippine army statement on April 1, 2025. Activities included jungle warfare, coastal defense and amphibious operations.
